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Source: https://www.inss.org.il/publication/israel-victory/
Did Israel Win the War in Gaza?
(Institute for National Security Studies-Tel Aviv University) Maj.-Gen. (res.) Tamir Hayman - One of Israel's objectives in Gaza is toppling Hamas's rule and dismantling its military capabilities. Militarily, Hamas is no longer the "terrorist army" it was before Oct. 7, 2023. Its commanders have been killed, its battalions dismantled, and organizational structure shattered. It has no functioning headquarters, special forces, or weapons-production infrastructure, and no coherent chain of command. Its fighters operate as small, uncoordinated guerrilla cells focused primarily on survival. Hamas now holds roughly 10% of its prewar rocket arsenal. Its estimated 17,000 fighters, mostly new and inexperienced, share approximately 10,000 rifles. The threat today differs dramatically from that of Oct. 6. Moreover, Hamas's condition is described as one of defeat by many Gaza residents and by prominent Palestinian opinion leaders. However, a decisive defeat requires sustained mechanisms to prevent Hamas's recovery. This means eliminating the organization's ability to recruit, rebuild, and reenter the fighting. Eliminating Hamas's governing capacity requires a competing authority capable of assuming control. Currently, Hamas still controls about half of Gaza's territory and exerts influence over an even larger portion of the population. By many measures, Israel has defeated Hamas in Gaza. However, it is too early to assess the durability of the change. Israel's national defense posture is nonetheless significantly improved compared to the prewar period. The writer, former head of the IDF Intelligence Directorate, is executive director of INSS.