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Israel's War with Hizbullah Has Not Ended
(Washington Institute for Near East Policy) Hanin Ghaddar and Assaf Orion - Although major military operations between Israel and Hizbullah ended in Nov. 2024, Israeli fire has hardly ceased; its forces are still conducting focused operations against Hizbullah targets nearly every day. This is because Israel's chief war goal - removing the terrorist threat on its northern border so that evacuated residents can safely return home - is still unattained. If Lebanon fails to meet its obligations, Israel is resolved to enforce this goal itself. Under the ceasefire deal, Beirut agreed to disarm Hizbullah via a mechanism carried out by the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) and monitored by the U.S. and France. Recognizing that this effort would be difficult and lengthy, Washington also acknowledged Israel's right to remove threats by force in the interim as necessary. Today, Israeli reports indicate that the group is not disarming - in fact, Hizbullah efforts to rebuild its military capabilities have accelerated, including in the south. In response, Western officials have given Beirut multiple warnings about looming Israeli military escalation, giving LAF leaders until year's end to resume the process of disarming Hizbullah and cutting off the militia's cash flow. Given Lebanon's divisive sectarian politics, imminent parliamentary election (scheduled for May), and lack of strong state institutions or dominant security forces, its leaders appear unwilling to take further steps that might increase the possibility of escalation with Hizbullah. They are concerned that pressing Hizbullah to disarm might spark a civil war and divide the LAF. If the situation remains unchanged once the new year arrives and Washington's ultimatum expires, Lebanon will probably face a different reality - one that entails more targeted killings of Hizbullah military and political leaders as well as more evacuations from densely populated centers of Hizbullah activity like Dahiya. Hanin Ghaddar is a Senior Fellow in The Washington Institute's Program on Arab Politics. Brig.-Gen. (res.) Assaf Orion, an Institute International Fellow, is former head of the IDF Strategic Planning Division.