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Source: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/iran/what-comes-after-axis-resistance
The Abiding Power of Sectarianism in the Middle East
(Foreign Affairs) Maria Fantappie and Vali Nasr - Iran built a transnational ideological network of Shiite communities, governments, and militias from Iran to Iraq to Lebanon, Yemen, and the Palestinian territories, what King Abdullah of Jordan referred to as a "Shiite crescent." By 2014, analysts regularly observed that Tehran controlled four Arab capitals: Baghdad, Beirut, Damascus, and Sanaa. From a military standpoint, this "axis of resistance" now lies in tatters. Its Iranian architects are aging, and their partners in the Arab world have been decimated by Israeli strikes. Yet the Shiite political and religious identity remains intact. Although Shiites represent only 15-20 percent of Muslims worldwide, they constitute roughly half the Muslim population of the Middle East. Shiite Muslims form the majority of the population in Bahrain, Iran, and Iraq and nearly the majority in Yemen; they are the largest religious community in Lebanon. Would-be peacemakers must pay careful attention to factoring the region's Shiites, both within and outside Iran, into their vision for regional order. State-building efforts in Lebanon and Syria should focus on guaranteeing equal rights for all communities. If Beirut and Damascus exclude minorities, marginalized Shiites will again turn to Iran for support. In Lebanon, simply disarming and dismantling Hizbullah will not bring stability. For decades, the organization acted as a state for the Shiite community, providing security, jobs, and social services; now Shiites must be offered other means of participating in the country's politics and economy. Maria Fantappie is head of the Mediterranean, Middle East, and Africa Program at Istituto Affari Internazionali in Rome. Vali Nasr is Professor of International Affairs and Middle East Studies at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies.