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Source: https://www.inss.org.il/publication/israel-iran-war-memorandum/
The Israel-Iran War and Its Implications for Iran's National Security
(Institute for National Security Studies-Tel Aviv University) Raz Zimmt - The 12-day war between Iran and Israel in June 2025 had a destabilizing effect on the Islamic Republic due to the success of Israel's opening strike, the decision of the U.S. to join the campaign, and the damage sustained by Iran's nuclear program and long-range missile arsenal. Since the end of the war, Iran has engaged in an ongoing process of drawing lessons from the serious gaps revealed in the Islamic Republic's deterrence and defense capabilities. The war set back Iran's nuclear program considerably, particularly its enrichment capabilities, although residual capacities remain. Moreover, Iran's motivation to obtain nuclear weapons has increased in light of the war's lessons, which exposed the failure of its deterrence. At the same time, its leadership appears apprehensive about taking steps that could trigger another strike. Iran has intensified its efforts to reconstruct and upgrade its military systems, particularly its missile forces and air defenses. These efforts include ramping back up to pre-war missile production rates. In the regional arena, the war highlighted the collapse of the proxy concept, particularly after Hizbullah's defeat in the summer of 2024 and the fall of the Assad regime in Syria. The war also heightened doubts about the condition of Iran's leader, Ali Khamenei - who was forced into hiding during the war. The writer, a veteran Iran watcher in the IDF, is Director of the Iran and the Shiite Axis program at INSS.