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Source: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/turkey/erdogans-imperial-delusions
Erdogan's Imperial Delusions
(Foreign Affairs) Asli Aydintasbas - When the Gaza ceasefire deal was signed on Oct. 13, Turkey's President Erdogan stood beside President Trump and the leaders of Egypt and Qatar. More than 100 years earlier, General Allenby had led the British army into Jerusalem, ending four centuries of Ottoman rule. But now, striding center stage into the politics of the Holy Land was the final reclamation of Turkey's historic role in the Middle East. Or so Erdogan would want the Turks to believe. In truth, Turkey's power so far does not match Erdogan's aspirations to establish a Turkish-led regional order. Trump's embrace is highly unlikely to boost Turkey's influence in the region - or to persuade the rest of the Middle East to accept it. On its own, Turkey faces too many internal problems, including a strained economy and a hollowed-out state. For ordinary Turks who are struggling to make ends meet, imperial grandeur feels distant from daily hardship. Erdogan's geopolitical project rests on the idea that Turkey is destined to lead the broader Middle East. A week after Assad's fall, Erdogan declared that "as a nation, we cannot limit our vision to 782,000 square kilometers." Turkey "cannot escape its destiny." The government's formidable propaganda machine has popularized the idea that Turkey is bound for greatness. The Ottoman Empire has been rehabilitated as a model of order. Turkey's security establishment also embraces the idea of a Turkish-led regional order. The military, once a bastion of restraint, now champions Turkey's forward defense postures in Iraq, Libya, Syria, and the eastern Mediterranean. The growing Turkish defense industry has also given Ankara leverage with its European allies. In addition to drones, the crown jewel of Turkish defense exports, private and state-owned manufacturers have been churning out ammunition, warships, missiles, tanks, and armored vehicles, and they will soon produce the country's first combat aircraft. Yet politically, Erdogan's base has narrowed. The opposition swept the 2024 municipal elections, with Erdogan's party garnering only 35% of the vote, its worst performance since coming to power in 2003. The March 2025 arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu on corruption charges and the subsequent arrests of more than a dozen other mayors belonging to the main opposition party were widely viewed as politically motivated. This erosion of support ultimately constrains Erdogan's regional aspirations. The writer is a Fellow and Director of the Turkey Project at the Brookings Institution.