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Source: https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/sites/default/files/pdf/PolicyNote164Satloff.pdf
Three Months after the Ceasefire in the Hamas-Israel War
(Washington Institute for Near East Policy) Robert Satloff - The near miraculous release of all live hostages and return of the remains of all the dead hostages except one was an objective few independent observers thought possible. Yet only two of the five war aims endorsed by the Israeli government have been implemented: the return of the hostages and establishment of a significant Israel Defense Forces (IDF) security perimeter within Gaza to prevent an October 7–style recurrence. Despite considerable diplomatic activity, none of the other three aims has been achieved and none seems even to be on the horizon: the disarmament of Hamas, the demilitarization of Gaza, and the creation of a peaceful Palestinian-led civilian administration led by neither Hamas nor the Palestinian Authority. Instead, the most likely scenario is an ad hoc postwar status quo in which Gaza is effectively divided between an Israel-controlled zone, covering 53% of the territory and 15% of the population, and a Hamas-controlled zone covering 47% of the territory and 85 percent of the population. Israel is likely to limit its Gaza activities to defending its zone of control and preventing illicit Hamas resupply efforts and hit-and-run attacks. Launching a major operation soon to disarm Hamas would appear unlikely since Israel is reluctant to take action that would indicate the collapse of President Trump's achievement. On the international front, Israel can count among its successes the ability to sequence its conflicts with regional adversaries, made possible through U.S. military and diplomatic support, thus preventing Iran and its proxies from realizing the full potential of their "ring of fire" to overwhelm Israeli defenses. Moreover, none of Israel's five Arab peace partners - Egypt, Jordan, the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco - suspended their treaties or broke relations during the war.