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December 30, 2025       Share:    

Source: https://jiss.org.il/en/lerman-the-day-after-the-day-after/

Israel's Options in Gaza

(Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security) Col. (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman - Despite hopeful U.S. statements and sentiments, the proposed International Stabilization Force (ISF) for Gaza will not act to disarm Hamas by force or dismantle its tunnel system - nor would Hamas do so on its own. This leaves Israel with four alternatives for the period ahead: (1) Perpetuating the current status quo, with Hamas controlling roughly half the territory and most of the population. However, this means accepting Hamas's rule over most of Gaza's population and its ability to still pose a threat. (2) Israel may decide to go on the offensive early, no longer hampered by the hostage issue, with the goal of destroying Hamas and taking over all remaining territory in Gaza, if President Trump can be persuaded that there is no other course. (3) Tightening the blockade of areas still under the control of terrorist groups, combined with significant U.S. and international investment in the "New Gaza" being rebuilt east of the Yellow Line. This should, theoretically, draw the population away from Hamas-held territories. (4) A modular design, where the IDF would gradually push Hamas back slice by slice, over time and with a limited and focused use of force - and then progressively hand over these areas to the ISF and the Gaza transitional authority. The primary advantage for Israel would be a low rate of attrition and losses, and the preservation of legitimacy, while still pursuing the ultimate destruction of Hamas. The writer, deputy director of JISS, held senior posts in IDF Military Intelligence for over 20 years and was deputy director for foreign policy and international affairs at Israel's National Security Council.

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