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Source: https://jcfa.org/the-digital-frontline-is-this-the-end-for-the-islamic-republic/
Is This the End for the Islamic Republic of Iran?
(Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs) Ella Rosenberg and Sogand Fakheri - The current unrest in Iran is not merely another wave of dissent; it is a direct response to the most catastrophic economic crisis since the 1979 Revolution. By late December 2025, the Iranian rial effectively collapsed. The monthly minimum wage has plummeted to $100, placing Iranian workers at the bottom of the region, just above war-torn Yemen. For the average family, a middle-class standard of living now requires 600 million rials per month, four times the current minimum wage. 60% of the population now lives below the poverty line. The regime is funneling billions into the IRGC and regional proxies like Hizbullah even as major cities suffer from rolling blackouts and a severe drought that has led to water rationing. The 12-day war with Israel in June drained the last of Iran's liquid reserves. For the first time, analysts believe the regime is facing a structural failure that cannot be solved by a simple crackdown. Previous uprisings were met by a unified security elite; today, that elite is fracturing. Regular army soldiers, suffering from the same inflation as the civilians they are ordered to suppress, are increasingly showing signs of "passive resistance." The question is no longer if the regime will face a reckoning, but how it will survive a winter where it can provide neither heat nor hope. Ella Rosenberg is a senior research fellow at the JCFA focusing on Iran and counter-terror financing. Sogand Fakheri is an Iranian-born actress and JCFA Iran affairs commentator who moved to Israel in 2007.