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Source: https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-882066
The Conditions Needed for Regime Change in Iran
(Jerusalem Post) Brig.-Gen. (res.) Yitzhak Segev - I was a witness to the Iranian Revolution of 1979 while serving as military attache and head of the Israel Ministry of Defense mission in Iran. The Iranian regime enjoys significant support from the residents of tens of thousands of villages in Iran, a population that is significantly behind urban residents and opposes any process of modernization or profound change. The most important condition that could significantly undermine the regime's stability, similar to that which occurred in the 1979 revolution, is a prolonged general strike by the country's central sectors, primarily the oil and gas sector. Another significant factor is the defection of security forces from the regime to the side of the people. Yet another condition is the continued economic and environmental deterioration. When conditions are created in which many families struggle to meet their children's basic needs, a sense of helplessness that extends across broad segments of the population can shift to explosive public outrage. Another factor is the urgent need for internal leadership with broad public legitimacy. Past experience shows that justified popular protests that failed to organize into a clear political force faded and did not bring about real change.