|
Trending Topics
|
Source: https://www.newstatesman.com/world/middle-east/2026/01/iran-is-on-the-edge-of-revolution
Iran Is on the Edge of Revolution
(New Statesman-UK) Abbas Milani - Iran is enduring its gravest crisis since the 1979 Revolution - due to a convergence of domestic exhaustion, despotism, elite fragmentation and strategic failure. The question is whether the system retains the internal coherence necessary to survive. The very social groups that helped bring the clerical regime to power have become its most implacable opponents. The economic foundations of the Islamic Republic have eroded beyond repair. The regime and its apologists blame it all on sanctions. Yet, four decades of inflation, mismanagement, and international isolation have impoverished virtually every segment of society. Iran's currency has collapsed; the middle class has been hollowed out; younger generations are bereft of hope. Rural and small-town populations - once reliable supporters - now confront unemployment, environmental degradation, and declining state capacity. Social media has put them in direct contact with the world. Para-state conglomerates linked to the Revolutionary Guards and religious foundations dominate key sectors and distort markets, deepening public resentment and crowding out private initiative. They have also created a new privileged class who shamelessly display lavish wealth, underscoring disparities in society. The so-called "axis of resistance," Iran's network of Middle Eastern proxies, has become a liability, draining resources. Recent military confrontations further exposed the fragility of Iran's deterrence. The rapid loss of senior military and intelligence figures punctured the image of strategic mastery the regime had carefully cultivated. The perception of weakness can be as destabilizing as weakness itself. The nuclear program, long presented as both shield and leverage, has similarly lost much of its strategic utility. The writer, an Iranian-American historian, is director of the Iranian Studies program at Stanford University.