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Source: https://nationalinterest.org/blog/middle-east-watch/the-crisis-of-the-islamic-republic-of-iran
The Crisis of the Islamic Republic of Iran
(National Interest) Zineb Riboua - The widening popular uprising taking shape across Iran unfolds as Iran's core pillars - its economic viability, coercive capacity, and external deterrence - fail simultaneously, creating a systemic crisis the regime has never faced and may not survive. Reports that the government planned to raise taxes starting on March 21 immediately fueled public anger because the increase is widely understood to finance expanding allocations to military, security, and religious institutions, including a 24% increase for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The public no longer trusts the state to manage revenue competently or distribute it equitably. Tehran continues to allocate substantial resources to regional clients and proxy forces, often at the expense of domestic investment. The public widely understands this trade-off. Protest slogans rejecting foreign entanglements reflect a growing recognition that national resources are being allocated to regional influence while living standards inside Iran steadily deteriorate. This is a regime that cannot admit error. The Islamic Republic is built on an ideological claim that the supreme leader and the clerical system guiding him are not merely in charge, but fundamentally right. In this worldview, failure is never the result of the regime's bad decisions. It is blamed on enemies, sabotage, or insufficient loyalty. That mindset makes correction almost impossible. Failure is deferred rather than corrected, allowing stress to accumulate until it spills into the streets. This is why, unlike during previous protest waves, Khamenei now faces choices with no stable exit. Sustaining control under these conditions requires exhausting what remains of the state's economic and coercive capacity. The regime may survive this phase, but only by accelerating a longer-term collapse. It is, indeed, the beginning of the end. The writer is research fellow and program manager at the Center for Peace and Security in the Middle East at the Hudson Institute.