|
Trending Topics
|
Source: https://borzou.substack.com/p/protests-wont-bring-down-the-iranian
The Downfall of the Islamic Republic Will Be Nasty, Brutish, and Likely Long
(Substack) Borzou Daragahi - Iran's biggest protests by far were the wave of mass demonstrations triggered by the disputed 2009 re-election of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. They drew hundreds of thousands in major cities. They also had the blessing of major factions within the political and clerical elite. They went on for months, led to thousands of arrests, and helped the regime fine-tune its repressive apparatus to deal with and eventually squelch subsequent protests. The country's rulers came to power on a wave of mass protests and have spent the last 47 years making sure they don't suffer the same fate. They've become quite good at it. There is well-informed speculation that the Iranian regime allows a certain amount of protests as an effective way to identify troublemakers. They identify those leading the chants and dispatch intelligence officers to round the emerging leaders up in the pre-dawn hours. They sentence them to years in prison, where they are subjected to mental torture and physical duress. But except for those in 2009, Iran's protests have not offered any possible roadmap to substantive political change. The truth is that the protests are scary to the bulk of Iranians. They stay away from crowds, denying protests the critical mass they need to be effective. They stay home because more than freedom, the bulk of Iranians cherish order above all. Iranians realize that regime collapse or foreign intervention could worsen their economic plight and threaten their security. The writer, an international correspondent for The Independent (UK), previously served as Baghdad bureau chief for the Los Angeles Times.