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Iran's Regime Is Not Merely Under Political Siege - It Is in a State of Existential Bankruptcy
(Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs) Oded Ailam - The reality of January 2026 challenges the Iranian regime with an equation it has never faced before. Iran is in a state of existential bankruptcy. With inflation approaching 60% and a severe energy shortage in an oil-rich state, the government has lost its tools for managing the crisis. The real crack is not only in the pocket, but in the image, with the collapse of its proxies: Syria, Hizbullah, Hamas, and now Venezuela. And the blows inflicted on the Revolutionary Guards by Israel and the U.S. have fractured its all-powerful image. The police and the regular army may show hesitation, but the Revolutionary Guards is a different story. For them, the fall of the regime means personal bankruptcy. The IRGC is not merely a military force; it is a conglomerate controlling 35-40% of the Iranian economy. Senior officers understand that revolution means nationalization of their assets and criminal prosecution. In the intelligence world, a visible presence is often a liability. Israel is still perceived as an enemy among broad segments of Iranian society. Instead, Israel should stir the pot without leaving fingerprints, operating in the shadows through cognitive and cyber warfare, including surgical strikes against regime systems and the injection of incriminating information about senior IRGC corruption directly into citizens' phones. It should encourage defections by creating covert channels to mid-level figures within the establishment, with promises of immunity on the "day after," in order to create cracks within the security apparatus. It should provide covert support and targeted arms to separatist groups in the periphery - Kurds in the west and Baluchis in the southeast. It should provide technological support, using satellites and cyber technologies to ensure continuous internet access for protesters. The writer, former head of the Counterterrorism Division in the Mossad, is a researcher at the Jerusalem Center.