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U.S. Options in Iran
(Wall Street Journal) Sune Engel Rasmussen - A limited U.S. strike against the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Iran's main security force, is unlikely to decide the outcome of the popular uprising, analysts, lawmakers and former administration officials say. "As long as the protesters are not heavily armed and ready to organize as a guerrilla [force], how will bombing the Revolutionary Guard help them?" said Rasmus Christian Elling, associate professor and Iran expert at the University of Copenhagen. "A complete neutralization of the repression apparatus will likely require thousands of strikes over a long period." There are nonmilitary options to put pressure on the Iranian leadership, including cyberattacks on military and civilian institutions, more sanctions on the country's oil sector, and boosting antiregime messaging online. Ultimately, there is little foreign powers can do to fundamentally shape the outcome of popular uprisings, analysts say. "I do not think foreign help can shift the needle that much. This is about the balance of power on the ground," said Peyman Jafari, an expert on Iranian social movements at William & Mary University. He noted that in the 2024 election more than 13 million people voted for the most hard-line candidate on the ballot. Successful revolutions also require divisions and defections in the security establishment, which hasn't happened yet in Iran. Moreover, history suggests that foreign support has rarely been the determining factor in helping popular revolts topple autocratic leaders.