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Trump Weighs Iran Strikes
(Reuters) Samia Nakhoul - President Trump is weighing options against Iran that include targeted strikes on security forces and leaders, seeking to create conditions for "regime change" after a crackdown crushed a nationwide protest movement earlier this month, killing thousands of people. However, a senior Israeli official told Reuters Israel does not believe airstrikes alone can topple the Islamic Republic. "If you're going to topple the regime, you have to put boots on the ground," he said, noting that even if the U.S. killed Ayatollah Khamenei, Iran would "have a new leader that will replace him." Only a combination of external pressure and an organized domestic opposition could shift Iran's political trajectory, the official said. Multiple U.S. intelligence reports reached a similar conclusion. Khamenei has retreated from daily governance, and day-to-day management has shifted to figures aligned with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which dominates Iran's security network and big parts of the economy. Arab officials and diplomats said they believe the IRGC could take over, entrenching hard-line rule, deepening the nuclear standoff and regional tensions. Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran Program at the Middle East Institute, said that without large-scale military defections, Iran's protests remained "heroic but outgunned." The most likely outcome is a "grinding erosion - elite defections, economic paralysis, contested succession - that frays the system until it snaps."