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Source: https://jcfa.org/the-fall-is-not-the-end-why-irans-greatest-danger-comes-after-the-regime/
Iran's Greatest Danger Comes After the Fall of the Regime
(Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs) Dr. Harold Rhode - It is essential to understand how Iranians see themselves before imagining an alternate future when Iran is again a respected member of the international community. Iran is not a homogeneous ethnic or even religious entity. Most Iranians share a cultural identity more than a political one. The Azeris and Persians, both deeply Shiite Muslims since the 1500s, have intermarried for centuries. Azeris are Turks, but the Iranian Azeri identity is first and foremost Shiite. They identify strongly with their Persian Shiite brothers, much more than with the Turks in Turkey or Central Asia. Many other Iranians are Shiites, and that religious identity often unites them more strongly than their separate ethnic origins. Iranians do not traditionally embrace the concept of one person, one vote. Decisions are almost always imposed from above, where the head of a unit, whether a family, clan, or community, is expected to take into account the needs of the group. Attempting to impose Western-style democracy is therefore likely doomed to failure. Regime change in the country has historically been characterized as a descent into chaos. Historically, what usually happens is that a widely known military or political figure, or a charismatic individual, emerges and imposes his will on others, typically after a period of chaos during which the country descends into anarchy. Without a central leader committed to unity and inclusion across ethnic, religious, economic, and familial lines, Iran would likely descend into chaos which most Iranians fear. The writer, a fellow of the Jerusalem Center, served as an adviser on the Islamic world for the U.S. Department of Defense for 28 years.