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Source: https://www.israelhayom.com/2026/02/04/everyone-is-trapped-why-no-one-wants-iran-to-win-or-collapse/
Why No One Wants Iran to Win or Collapse
(Israel Hayom) Aviram Bellaishe - What are President Trump's options in Iran? A symbolic strike would be worse than no strike at all. It would give Iran a narrative of "standing up to America" without degrading its capabilities. Regime change? That would require military or Revolutionary Guards elements willing to defect and lead under American sponsorship. That does not exist. One option remains: a deal that looks like victory. The problem is that Iran needs exactly the same thing. Iran needs sanctions relief to survive. But it cannot afford to appear defeated. In the Middle East, a regime that appears to have "surrendered" loses legitimacy, not only in the eyes of its people but in the eyes of its proxies and the enemies circling it. The paradox is that the weaker the regime becomes, the stronger it needs to appear. This narrows its flexibility precisely when flexibility is most needed. In recent days, Iran demanded moving the talks from Istanbul to Oman and shifting from a multilateral format to bilateral talks with the U.S. alone. A regional summit with seven foreign ministers watching feels too much like a surrender ceremony. From the perspective of the mediators - Turkey, Qatar, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia - the ideal situation is precisely what exists now: a weakened Iran, an exhausted Shiite axis, but no total collapse that would bring chaos and refugees. They do not want a regional war. But neither do they want an Iran freed from sanctions, with oil flowing and Iranians building a competing economic empire. Everyone, including Trump, seeks a diplomatic solution because they fear the alternative. What happens if the Iranian regime falls? There is no organized opposition inside Iran. Reza Pahlavi is a nostalgic symbol, not a leader with an apparatus. There is no coordination with military or Revolutionary Guards elements prepared to lead an orderly transition. The writer, vice president of the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs, has served in senior government positions for over 25 years.