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Source: https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-886048
Why Iran Will Never Give Up Its Ballistic Missile Program
(Jerusalem Post) Dr. Raz Zimmt, head of the Iran Program at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), told 103FM on Monday that Iran is unlikely to relinquish its ballistic missile arsenal because it views this as its last credible pillar of deterrence and a hedge against what it sees as unreliable U.S. guarantees. Zimmt said Iran is not seeking a military confrontation with the U.S., but the key question is what Tehran is willing to concede to avoid one. He said that in Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's calculus, the risk of a military strike is less significant than the risk of dismantling missile capabilities. He assessed that Iranian decision-makers believe that even a significant U.S. attack could end without toppling the regime. "I am not convinced that Khamenei believes the Americans are truly capable of bringing down the regime," Zimmt said. Zimmt described Iran's missile array as a direct threat to Israel. Recent events underscored how ballistic missiles can cause significant damage. He pointed to attempts to target civilian areas and multiple missile launches intended to increase the chance of penetrating air defenses. Since Israel and the U.S. have managed to push Iran further from nuclear capabilities, missiles are currently the more immediate threat.