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Source: https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/22279/iran-hanging-on-at-any-cost
Iran: Hanging on at Any Cost
(Gatestone Institute) Amir Taheri - Iran's "Supreme Guide" Ali Khamenei returned center stage last Wednesday to reaffirm his resolve to make absolutely no concessions to domestic opponents or foreign foes, as the regime organized marches to mark the anniversary of the 1979 Islamic Revolution. This year's marches lacked the density, let alone the passion, of previous years and in some cases, the official media used photos and clips from previous years to heighten the narrative. Khamenei's renewed defiance is inspired by four conclusions he has drawn. The first is that neither the U.S. nor Israel would risk a new military confrontation with Iran if only because the element of surprise they benefited from last June is no longer there. The second is that almost all regional powers oppose regime change in Iran. The third is that regime opponents have no strategy for achieving power. The fourth is that the most imminent threat to the system may come from a disparate group of malcontents collectively labeled the "pro-reform" faction. To forestall such a scheme, a campaign against "pro-reform" figures was launched with the arrest of several activists. Khamenei seems determined to work with a more compact group of no-questions-asked loyalists on a platform of revolutionary defiance, moderated by cosmetic gestures he calls "heroic flexibility." A key example of that flexibility is his readiness to authorize the resumption of indirect talks with the U.S. Meanwhile, government employees and members of military and security apparatuses are to receive the largest New Year bonus ever granted, while minimum wages are to be increased by 20-30%. A new wave of retirements in the IRGC gives Khamenei an opportunity to promote a new generation of officers who have risen from the ranks entirely under his leadership. The writer was executive editor-in-chief of the daily Kayhan in Iran from 1972 to 1979.