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Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/21/opinion/iran-us-attack-armada-talks.html
Banking on Iranian Weakness Is a Mistake
(New York Times) Reuel Marc Gerecht and Ray Takeyh - By massacring thousands of Iranians in January, the ruling elite has shown that the regime remains strong. In the 1979 revolution that brought Iran's theocratic rulers to power, the demonstrations grew once the masses realized that Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi was unwilling to slaughter his own people. For those demonstrators, it was both safe and validating to join the opposition. This time, the elite groups that control Iran's military and economy held together, and the security forces attacked. Even now the regime is expanding its target list, arresting hitherto tolerated members of the Reformist Front political faction. Two recent rounds of talks belie the idea that Tehran will be intimidated. What seems clear is that the clerical regime no longer views being bombed by America or Israel as an existential threat. This isn't likely to change even if Mr. Khamenei dies. The Islamic Republic is an ideological system with a multilayered elite that benefits from it. Yet the regime has revealed no plans for addressing the nation's economic decline, widespread corruption, or the ecological problems that create persistent water shortages. At some point, there will be another uprising. Millions of Iranians cannot be suppressed forever. But for now, the lifespan of the Islamic Republic has been extended by its recent killing spree. Mr. Gerecht is a resident scholar at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Mr. Takeyh is a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.