|
Trending Topics
|
Deterrence and Escalation Dynamics with Iran
(Washington Institute for Near East Policy) Michael Eisenstadt - For decades, Washington struggled to counter Tehran's asymmetric way of war, rooted in a failure to understand the Islamic Republic's military modus operandi and fears of another Middle East "forever war." The 12-day conflict in June 2025, however, confounded predictions that a U.S. attack on Iran would prompt massive retaliation, lead to thousands of American casualties, and spark an "all-out" regional war. In turn, it laid bare longstanding misconceptions regarding the ability of the U.S. and Israel to manage escalation with Iran. This study reviews recent U.S. and Israeli conflicts with Iran and its proxies to better understand the Islamic Republic's past approach to deterrence and escalation management, which may inform its conduct in future conflicts. The writer is a senior fellow and director of the Military and Security Studies Program at The Washington Institute.