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Hizbullah Seen Unlikely to Join Iran in War
(National Interest) Rany Ballout - Hizbullah has issued veiled threats of retaliation in the event of a U.S. strike on Iran, stating that it would not remain neutral. However, Hizbullah is unlikely to start another war with Israel. Although reports suggest efforts to reconstitute, the group faces significant constraints: domestic opposition to renewed conflict, a demoralized base, sharply diminished military capabilities following Israel's fall 2024 campaign, and disrupted supply lines after the collapse of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria. Meanwhile, Israel continues targeted strikes against Hizbullah to prevent its reconstitution, with more than 400 of its operatives reportedly killed by Israel since the ceasefire. Hizbullah is not militarily capable of meaningful retaliation. It is notable that Hizbullah opted not to intervene during the 12-day Israel-Iran war in June 2025, even though the group's leadership was advised by Iran on the fifth day of the war to intervene. According to the Alma Research and Education Center, Hizbullah retains 25,000 short- and medium-range rockets, a smaller number of precision missiles and air defenses, and an expanding drone arsenal including 1,000 kamikaze drones. The group fields 40,000-50,000 active fighters and tens of thousands of reservists, including the 5,000-strong Radwan unit as its primary offensive formation.