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Source: https://www.wsj.com/opinion/trump-tries-to-avoid-the-iraq-trap-6a237bc2?mod=opinion_recentauth_pos_3
The U.S. Gamble in Iran
(Wall Street Journal) Walter Russell Mead - Thanks to deep coordination with Israeli intelligence, the initial attack decapitated the Islamic Republic's leadership, with roughly 50 of its leading cadres, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei himself, returned to their maker. Iran's air defenses had still not recovered from last June's 12-day war, and allied control over Iranian skies is near total. Iran's retaliatory strikes in the first 48 hours were militarily weak and politically misguided, doing limited damage and creating a regional coalition against Tehran. But serious problems remain. The mullahs think, with reason, that Mr. Trump lacks the political support for a long and grinding war. If they can absorb the air attacks long enough, the regime will survive. Sooner or later, they hope, Washington will tire of its engagement in Iran, and the mullahs can re-establish their rule. The writer, a fellow at the Hudson Institute, is Professor of Strategy and Statecraft at the University of Florida.