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Source: https://jcfa.org/the-irgc-faces-defeat/
Iran's Revolutionary Guards Face Defeat
(Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs) Oded Ailam - For years it seemed that the engine of the Iranian revolution - the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp (IRGC) - was only growing stronger. The revolution extended its arms across the world: South America, Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen, Sudan. Now a series of colossal mistakes, a misreading of the American administration, an underestimation of the international community, dependence on treacherous patrons - Russia and China, has led the Iranian leadership to the edge of the abyss. What was built over decades as a palace of revolutionary self-confidence is now slowly sinking into the sand. The conduct of Iran and its proxies, firing at neighboring states and widening the fronts of war, is not an expression of strength. It resembles a chess player who, in rage, knocks the pieces off the board as checkmate approaches. The name that arises again and again to succeed the Supreme Leader is his son, Mojtaba Khamenei. Yet Mojtaba is not a leader who grew out of the religious tradition. He has no religious law backbone, no aura of a learned cleric, and no real military experience to his credit. If appointed, he will be a puppet of the Revolutionary Guards, not a leader who guides the system. In practice, it has long been clear who runs the country. The Revolutionary Guards view the current campaign as a new chapter in the eternal drama of a faithful minority against a hostile world, and therefore every compromise feels like betrayal. This logic also explains the pressure placed on Hizbullah. The Revolutionary Guards made it clear that if they do not join the war now, the relationship ends. Refusal would sever it from its patron in Tehran, from money, weapons, and ideology, and its fate as a revolutionary religious organization would be sealed. The writer, former head of the Counterterrorism Division in the Mossad, is a researcher at the Jerusalem Center.