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Source: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/why-china-wont-help-iran
Why China Won't Help Iran
(Foreign Affairs) Yun Sun - China is watching carefully as the U.S. and Israel bombard Iran. Beijing is, after all, Tehran's most important partner. Both oppose a Western-dominated global order. More than 55% of China's total oil imports in 2025 came from the Middle East (13% from Iran itself), most of which must pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Because the recent bombing campaign potentially jeopardizes Beijing's ability to ship oil from the region, some analysts have speculated that Beijing will come to Tehran's aid. But although China is concerned, it is not likely to get involved. After Israel's 12-day war against Iran in June 2025, China offered only boilerplate diplomatic rhetoric in support of the Islamic Republic. Since October 7, 2023, when Hamas attacked Israel, Beijing has grown increasingly disillusioned with Tehran's capability and credibility as a regional power. Ultimately, Beijing doesn't see regime change in Iran as a worst-case scenario. China is willing to work with whatever leadership emerges after the strikes as long as it protects oil flows and prioritizes shared economic interests. Pessimism about Iran's fate is now baked into Chinese assessments of the Middle East: in the current crisis, Chinese opinion leaders such as the prominent pundit Hu Xijin lament the quagmire Iran and its people now face and blame Tehran for leading the country into it. China has already lost faith in the leadership of the Islamic Republic. What matters now is figuring out how to work with the next power holders to keep oil flowing from the Middle East. The writer is Director of the China Program at the Stimson Center.