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Ending Iran War Quickly Carries Big Risks for U.S. and Allies
(Wall Street Journal) Yaroslav Trofimov - If Trump proclaims victory, stops the bombing and begins to withdraw the huge air and naval assets he assembled in the Middle East, it could soothe global markets and reassure American voters uneasy about the prospect of another forever war. But leaving in place Iran's theocratic regime - angry, defiant and in possession of its nuclear stockpile and what remains of its arsenal of missiles and drones - would essentially grant Tehran control over the world's energy markets. It would also sacrifice the security of America's partners and allies, and make another war likely. Iranian officials say they will fight on, until an agreement is reached on Iran's terms, including America paying reparations to Tehran. Marc Sievers, a former U.S. ambassador to Oman, said, "The regime lost a lot of its military capability, but not all of it clearly. If they are left standing, they will do everything they can to rebuild, and to do once again all these things that they were doing that triggered this." "The bad news is you would leave Iran potentially in a position where it can produce nuclear weapons, and you also leave Iran potentially with more motive to produce nuclear weapons," said Eric Brewer, an expert at the Nuclear Threat Initiative who served in senior nuclear-related roles in the White House and the U.S. intelligence community. "A wounded, angry Iran is not the best-case scenario for the Gulf states. While the U.S. has to a large degree castrated Iran in terms of its ability to attack Israel, this gives Iran only one other option: to attack the Gulf states and to weaponize the Strait of Hormuz," said Dania Thafer, executive director of the Gulf International Forum think tank.