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Source: https://www.thejc.com/opinion/why-the-islamic-republic-may-survive-this-campaign-s8szgyqq
The Islamic Republic May Survive This Campaign
(Jewish Chronicle-UK) Jonathan Spyer - The Iranian regime, so far at least, appears to be maintaining the crucial loyalty of its own security personnel, and of the 20% of the population that is generally reckoned to support it. It is aware that it is fighting for its life. It is difficult to see how anything more than severe damage to the regime can be achieved. Moreover, the likelihood is slim in the extreme that the Lebanese Armed Forces will act to enforce Prime Minister Nawaf Salam's declaration that Hizbullah's military activity is illegal. Lebanese Chief of Staff Rodolphe Haykal's forces consists of 50% Shia Lebanese, including 30% of its officer corps. Israel has no intention of invading Lebanon in its entirety, while nothing in Lebanon is willing or able to dismantle Hizbullah. Israel can severely degrade Tehran's Lebanese clients, but it is difficult to see how it can finish them. The result is that it appears likely, unless something significantly changes, that both Iran and its Lebanese proxy will survive the present war.