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Trump's Grand Strategy
(Substack) Jonathan Sacerdoti - The war unfolding between the U.S., Israel and Iran is not merely a Middle Eastern conflict, but part of a much wider contest over power, ideology and the future balance of the international system. Trump is nobody's fool. Tiny Israel, however formidable, cannot trick or blindside the U.S. into fighting wars against its own interests. When two reliable allies reached a moment when their interests, abilities and mutual understanding aligned almost perfectly, coordination becomes not only possible but logical. Both Israel and the U.S. see strategic opportunity and necessity in confronting Iran now. Each grants the other an opportunity they may not have again for decades. While Israel gains relief from a long-standing existential threat, the U.S. weakens a persistent adversary that has challenged its influence and threatened global trade routes for decades. Iranians themselves gain a unique opportunity to overthrow a brutal theocratic regime that has killed many thousands. Gulf states that quietly fear Iranian hegemony have found themselves aligning with Washington's campaign after Iran lashed out at them. Demonstrating overwhelming military capability against a regional adversary sends a signal about American resolve and capacity at a moment of delicate great-power diplomacy with China. Iran offers China a useful strategic partner positioned near some of the world's most important maritime choke points. For Washington, weakening Iran serves a broader objective: preventing hostile powers from gaining leverage over critical arteries of global trade. Trump also appears to see the conflict as a confrontation with a revolutionary regime whose worldview combines militant theology with a willingness to employ barbarity against its enemies and even its own people. It truly threatens the very core of our civilization.