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Source: https://besacenter.org/the-gaza-terror-offensive-october-7-8-2023/
Iran's Defensive Strategy
(BESA Center for Strategic Studies-Bar-Ilan University) Dr. Eado Hecht - Israel has stated clearly from the start of the war with Iran that this will be a long war, because achieving the required results will take time. Israel has also understood from the start that it will suffer casualties and damage too. The minimum objective agreed to by Israel and the U.S. is the total destruction of Iran's nuclear industry, surface-to-surface missile industry, and exploding drone industry. Beyond that, they are both gradually destroying Iran's other military assets. As Iran's air defenses have been eroded by the cumulative destruction of their radars and missile launchers, the Americans have been increasingly employing large bombers. Each B-1, B-2 and B-52 bomber is individually capable of dropping a number of munitions equivalent to that of several fighter bombers, and the B-2s are also capable of carrying bombs heavy enough to penetrate tens of meters into the ground before exploding to hit tunnels. The Iranians understand that they are incapable of inflicting the level of damage on Israel, the U.S. and neighboring countries that they are suffering. They hope that by constantly harassing these countries - Israel via civilian casualties, the U.S. via military casualties, the Arabian Peninsula states by harming their economies, and, by extension, the economies of Europe and Asia - they will cause sufficient political pressure to bring about a cessation of the offensive on Iran with the regime still intact. This time, the rate of missile fire on Israel is about half that of June 2025 and the number of exploding drones less than 15%. This cannot be attributed solely to Iran's firing of missiles at other states. The missiles fired at the Arabian Peninsula have ranges that cannot reach Israel. The numbers suggest the success of the Israeli and American anti-missile operations and the residual effects of what the Israelis achieved in June 2025 in terms of reducing Iran's arsenal and manufacturing capabilities. While there is an increased use of cluster warheads, the chance that such a bomb will penetrate shelters or destroy an ordinary building is virtually nil, but the amount of booms heard during each strike and the spread of the bombs over a wide area creates a greater psychological effect. So far, the strategy of wearing down the civilian population has not led to pressure from the people on the Israeli government to halt the war. Other than their offensive strategy of harassment, the Iranian regime's overall strategy is defensive - to survive by dispersing and concealing its new leadership and what's left of its military capabilities. They have also mobilized and dispersed their internal security personnel to ensure readiness to react to any attempt at renewing the anti-government activities.