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Source: https://www.newsweek.com/whats-really-driving-strategy-behind-trumps-war-on-iran-opinion-11698932
The Energy Panic Is Overblown for Now
(Newsweek) Ilan Berman - Iran's clerical regime is now attempting to manipulate the regional energy picture to its advantage by threatening to shut down tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. News channels and social media platforms are now awash with commentary about the catastrophic effects that such disruptions might have on the world energy market. But the actual picture is significantly less dire. In a recent analysis, Ariel Cohen of the Atlantic Council details that the high-water mark for oil prices in the past quarter-century came in 2008, when oil hit $147 per barrel - equivalent to roughly $223 per barrel in today's dollars. Current prices are nowhere near those levels. Moreover, recent decades have seen regional producers like Saudi Arabia and the UAE erect workarounds to keep regional oil flowing in the event of a disruption of traffic through the Hormuz. In addition, other potent oil producers (like Nigeria and Azerbaijan) have the ability to surge capacity to the market, thereby helping offset losses from the Strait. The writer is Senior Vice President at the American Foreign Policy Council.