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Source: https://parpanchi.substack.com/p/what-looks-like-resilience-in-iran
Are We Seeing Signs of Iranian Regime Resilience or Breakdown?
(Substack) Mehdi Parpanchi - 18 days after the U.S. and Israel launched their military campaign against Iran, the Islamic Republic is still firing missiles and drones at Israel and other targets across the region. State television is still broadcasting. Basij and IRGC units are still present on the streets. These indicators are taken as evidence that the system has absorbed the shock and remains solid. In reality, they indicate the opposite. The Islamic Republic prepared for the moment when its center would be hit. In that scenario, regional units keep firing, security forces keep repressing, and the state projects fragments of normality. What we are seeing is not resilience, but a regime preserving violence and surface function long enough to outlast the political patience of its adversaries. Tehran believes Washington will not fight a war for long. Its strategy, then, is endurance: keep shooting until the Americans decide the game is no longer worth the price. Iranian planners built a structure meant to survive decapitation, fragmentation, and prolonged disruption. The missiles are still flying because the system was built to keep firing after the center's grip had already started to fray. What looks like resilience is in fact the functioning legacy of a doomsday design. The absence of visible defections does not necessarily mean loyalty. If influential figures inside the system are unsure whether the U.S. intends to sustain pressure or whether it will eventually accept an off-ramp, they have every reason to hesitate. No one wants to gamble everything on a final move if they suspect American pressure may soon ease. The writer is executive editor at Iran International TV.