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Military Options for Reopening the Strait of Hormuz
(Washington Institute for Near East Policy) Michael Eisenstadt and Assaf Orion - Iran has established a selective passage regime through the Strait of Hormuz, exporting its own oil and natural gas while permitting safe passage to countries that "pay a toll" and denying transit to all others. Although Iran's military has been greatly weakened, it appears to retain significant residual capabilities, including large numbers of small boats, anti-ship cruise and ballistic missiles, coastal artillery and rocket units, and numerous attack drones. Many of these drones could be launched from over 1,000 miles inland. While convoy operations and intensified attacks on Iran's military capabilities might temporarily relieve some pressure, they could come at a significant cost and take significant time, and they are not guaranteed to safeguard navigation. Achieving more durable success will require a complementary approach that involves applying further pressure on Iran's economy. The U.S. and Israel need to turn the regime's strategy against it by applying countervailing pressure on Iran's ability to use the Strait of Hormuz, making clear that if other states cannot use the strait, neither can Iran. Tehran exports 90% of its oil through the loading terminals on Kharg Island, making it the Achilles' heel of the Iranian economy. Some have hinted that Marine forces might be tasked with seizing the island, but any U.S. ground elements involved would be vulnerable to prolonged bombardment from the mainland. The U.S. could respond with a distant blockade of Iran's oil exports, diverting Iranian "shadow tankers," then impounding and selling their cargo as was done in the past with tankers from Venezuela's "shadow fleet." Washington should also consider impounding Iranian "shadow fleet" tankers located largely in Asia that serve as floating storage, holding nearly 140 million barrels of oil. About 80% of Iran's imports pass through Hormuz. Another option for the U.S. is a selective blockade, allowing ships largely carrying foodstuffs to Iran to pass while diverting those carrying raw materials, equipment, and industrial goods. Tehran has threatened global energy security and taken the global economy hostage. Allowing Iranian threats to persist indefinitely is unacceptable. Washington and its partners need to counter Iran's attacks in order to deter perpetual threats. At the same time, they must design a follow-on campaign to ensure freedom of navigation through the strait against a wounded but still dangerous and aggrieved regime. Michael Eisenstadt is a Senior Fellow and Director of the Military and Security Studies Program at the Washington Institute, where Brig.-Gen. (res.) Assaf Orion, former head of the IDF Strategic Planning Division, is an International Fellow.