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Source: https://www.inss.org.il/publication/hezbollah-roaring-lion/
Hizbullah's War for Survival
(Institute for National Security Studies) Lt.-Col. (ret.) Orna Mizrahi - Hizbullah decided on March 2 to open a front against Israel, after refraining from doing so during the 15 months since the ceasefire with Israel in November 2024, despite knowing that this move would exact a heavy price. Hizbullah sought to fulfill its commitment to Iran by drawing Israel into investing efforts on the Lebanese front, and out of concern that an Iranian defeat would lead to a halt or significant reduction in Iranian support. It also sought to improve its position in response to Israel's ongoing military operations against it and efforts by the Lebanese leadership to disarm it. Hizbullah used its entire arsenal, launching dozens to hundreds of missiles and UAVs daily, mainly at northern Israeli communities but also reaching the outskirts of Haifa. A small number of ballistic missiles were also launched toward central Israel, with one even reaching the Israeli communities around Gaza. From Israel's perspective, a war with Hizbullah alongside a war with Iran is not an optimal scenario. However, Hizbullah's entry into the conflict has worked in Israel's favor. Israel was prepared for another round in the north and appears to view the situation as an opportunity to act against Hizbullah. Its objective in Lebanon is to disarm the organization and eliminate the threat it poses. It appears that military operations against Hizbullah will continue even after the war with Iran ends. The U.S., which shows only limited interest in the campaign against Hizbullah, has also granted it legitimacy. Accordingly, even if Hizbullah is not fully disarmed, the continuation of the campaign is expected to significantly degrade its capabilities, severely undermine its domestic standing, and reduce Iran's ability to support it. The writer, a senior researcher at INSS, served for 26 years in the IDF and 12 years in Israel's National Security Council.