|
Trending Topics
|
How the Iran-Led Axis of Resistance Turns Loss into Leverage - and Why It May Fail
(Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs) Rawan Osman - Hizbullah's decision to drag Lebanon into war with Israel is a war Lebanon cannot afford and Hizbullah cannot win. Yet Hizbullah is not acting as a Lebanese national actor but as part of the Iranian-led Axis of Resistance. The axis is not trying to defeat Israel outright. It is attempting to shape the political, psychological, and diplomatic consequences of Israel's response. The blueprint for this strategy was laid out on Oct. 7. The attack was not only an act of mass violence; it was a calculated provocation designed to reshape the regional environment. The brutality of the attack was designed to produce maximum shock and outrage, ensuring a massive Israeli retaliation. That retaliation was the intended outcome. By drawing Israel into a prolonged and devastating war, the axis created conditions in which civilian suffering, particularly in Gaza and later in Lebanon, would become the central image of the conflict. These images, amplified globally, serve to isolate Israel diplomatically, erode its standing in Western societies, and reignite deeply rooted hostility across the Arab and Muslim worlds. The objective is to sustain a cycle in which Israel is compelled to act forcefully, only to see that force translated into political cost. In escalating the confrontation, Iran and its proxies may have overreached. By extending the conflict across multiple fronts and implicating Arab states more directly, Iran has intensified suspicion and hostility among Sunni-majority countries. In Lebanon, this shift is particularly visible. The scale of destruction, combined with Iran's inability to shield the country from its consequences or to compensate for the losses incurred, has emboldened criticism of Hizbullah in ways that were previously rare. The writer is a JCFA researcher and Syrian-born activist.