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Source: https://parpanchi.com/p/the-last-feather-why-the-islamic
Why the Islamic Republic May Survive the War but Not the Peace
(The Frame) Mehdi Parpanchi - The war in Iran struck a regime already burdened by a series of major setbacks over the past three years. The joint U.S.-Israeli attack became possible only after those earlier setbacks changed the landscape. The Islamic Republic is now in direct confrontation with the world's most formidable military power, the U.S., and the region's strongest army, Israel. Why should the regime not survive the bombing campaign as it has survived so many earlier shocks? The Islamic Republic says it is winning the war. History will deliver its answer soon enough. For years, the Islamic Republic spoke of control over four Arab capitals, of a Shia crescent, and of strategic depth. It presented itself as a power on the march - expanding, advancing, and shaping the region around itself. When Assad fell, when Syria was lost, and when the proxies took crippling blows, that image began to collapse. What had been presented as strategic depth looked increasingly like an expensive illusion. Israel's attack in June 2025 exposed the gap between propaganda and reality. For years, Ali Khamenei and his IRGC commanders boasted about indigenous air-defense systems. They told Iranians that even the most sophisticated U.S. and Israeli aircraft could not operate over Iran. Billions were spent developing these systems and building an image of invulnerability. That myth collapsed on first contact with reality when the 12-day war began. The 12-day war shattered the regime's image of competence, control, and strength for millions of Iranians. Much of the population that opposed the regime saw it humiliated and were openly pleased to see it struck so hard. At the same time, parts of the regime's own support base were stunned to see Israeli bombers operate over Iran with such ease. The events of Jan. 8-9, 2026, marked a decisive shift in Iran's political landscape. In Tehran, an estimated 1.5 million people took to the streets, with similar scenes repeated in 400 cities, with total participation reaching 5 million. The state responded with lethal force that killed 36,500 people in 48 hours. The scale of the violence shattered the narrative that the Islamic Republic still ruled with some measure of public consent. A state that still commands genuine consent does not need to kill on such a scale to clear the streets. The scale of the damage from the Israeli-U.S. military operation that began on Feb. 28 is now impossible to ignore. The Supreme Leader is dead, along with more than fifty senior IRGC commanders. If the war ends without the immediate fall of the regime, many will label it a defeat for the U.S. and Israel. But battlefield metrics are a poor measure of political reality. The economy is in dire condition. Sanctions will not disappear. Political systems do not always collapse during war. Often, they collapse in the aftermath, when military failure gives way to elite fracture and a society no longer willing to live as before. The writer is executive editor at Iran International TV.