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Source: https://x.com/miadmaleki/status/2043456536454836467
The Impact on Iran of a U.S. Naval Blockade
(X) Miad Maleki - A U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would cost Iran about $276 million/day in lost exports and disrupt $159 million/day in imports, a combined economic damage of about $435 million/day, or $13 billion/month. Over 90% of Iran's $109.7 billion in annual trade transits the Persian Gulf. Iran was exporting about 1.5 million barrels/day of crude oil. A blockade zeroes this out. Iran has roughly 20 million barrels of spare onshore oil storage capacity. With the 1.5 million that it normally exports, storage will fill up in 13 days. After that, Iran must shut-in wells. When mature oil wells shut down, bottom water rushes in, reducing the oil that can be recovered. Forced shut-ins could permanently destroy production capacity worth $9-15 billion a year. The writer, a senior U.S. sanctions strategist and former associate director of the U.S. Department of the Treasury's Office of Global Targeting at the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), is a Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.