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Source: https://besacenter.org/welcome-to-the-new-iran/
Welcome to the New Iran
(BESA Center for Strategic Studies-Bar-Ilan University) Col. (res.) Shay Shabtai - For the most part, that which once constituted Iran no longer exists. One can argue that the U.S.-Israel operation tipped Iran from a strong theocracy to a weak dictatorship. This process has been going on for at least two decades, but the operation caused an irreversible change. The death of Ali Khamenei created a vacuum. The growing need for both violent internal repression and dealing with external threats further strengthens the centrality of the IRGC in decision-making. The damage to the Iranian economy and the regime's industries primarily harms its supporters. The regime will have to use the state's resources first and foremost to reestablish its power and core support base. This will come at the expense of most Iranian citizens. The acquisition of unconventional weapons will now depend on technological feasibility and the ability to implement technical capability without its being detected, attacked, and destroyed beforehand. The survival and way of life of the members of the public who support the regime are highly dependent on the survival of the regime. At the same time, they are being fed lies about the state's situation by the regime's media. The rest of the public is in a battle for survival and a significant portion of the Iranian population will have to fight for their most basic needs. In such a situation, and where brutal oppression is increasing, it is likely that widespread and organized protests will decrease significantly, while anger and willingness to commit violence will increase. As Iran's economic situation worsens, the sanctions will become much more effective. It is therefore essential to push for their continuity and prevent ideas that might arise to ease them in the name of misplaced concern for the Iranian people. The writer is a senior researcher at the BESA Center.