|
Trending Topics
|
Source: https://www.jns.org/opinion/irans-regime-is-being-suffocated-from-within-and-without
Iran's Regime Is Being Suffocated from Within and Without
(JNS) Dr. Harold Rhode - The Islamic Republic is under severe pressure, its leadership is fractured, and the conditions for regime change are developing. An important analysis was published this week by Vaughn Cordle, founder of Ionosphere Capital, titled, "The End of Iran's Regime Is Coming." He argues that "the fracture is internal, the pressure is financial," and that Iran's regime is approaching collapse. He cites interference by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in negotiations, payroll failures, absenteeism in security units, Dubai's crackdown on Iranian financial networks, and that while the regime can print rials, it cannot print purchasing power. He also argues that the ceasefire extension and blockade put into place by President Trump are a way to let Iran's internal financial clock run out. The true believers inside the IRGC believe that suffering proves righteousness and that if they hold firm, Divine redemption will come. For such people, compromise with America, the Sunni Arabs or Israel is betrayal. But regimes fall when they can no longer pay the people who protect them. Once payroll stops, loyalty becomes negotiable. Cordle cites reports that police special units have been paid late, Armed Forces personnel have gone unpaid, and absence rates in some units are approaching 90%. He also notes reports of defections and even the use of 12-year-old children by the Basij, the thug enforcers of the IRGC. The regime's coercive machinery is losing its material foundation. Patience is therefore essential. The strategy requires time. The pressure must continue until the internal fracture produces a faction willing to act. The writer, a fellow of the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs, served as an adviser on the Islamic world for the U.S. Department of Defense for 28 years.