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Source: https://jcfa.org/from-boardroom-to-battlefield-the-abraham-accords-and-the-uaes-sovereign-pivot/
The UAE Charts a Bold, New Course
(Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs) Ella Rosenberg - Effective May 1, 2026, the United Arab Emirates will terminate its membership in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Its rationale is heavily economic, driven by the UAE's frustration with the cartel's production quotas. Following a massive $150 billion investment program, the UAE expanded its production capacity to 4.85 million barrels per day. Yet, under OPEC+ constraints championed by Saudi Arabia, the UAE was forced to pump 30% below its actual capacity. The UAE's calculus is to monetize reserves now, while demand is high, rather than leaving stranded assets in the ground to satisfy a cartel. When the Strait of Hormuz eventually reopens, the UAE will emerge completely unbound by quotas, ready to flood the market with an incremental 1.6 mb/d. When the Middle East exploded into open conflict on Feb. 28, Iran launched 550 ballistic and cruise missiles and over 2,200 drones at the Emirates. The Iranian bombardment proved that economic integration and diplomatic hedging do not grant immunity. This traumatic realization served as the catalyst for Abu Dhabi to aggressively assert its own sovereignty, deciding that it will no longer subvert its economic or political interests to regional consortiums that offer no tangible protection. During the intense weeks of Iranian bombardment, the UAE expressed profound frustration with the lack of meaningful support from its Arab neighbors. For Gulf countries like Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait, the situation is a strategic nightmare. They have witnessed firsthand that hosting sprawling U.S. military bases makes them primary targets for Iranian retaliation, yet fails to provide an absolute shield against asymmetric drone and missile swarms. The writer is an Iran and financial terrorism expert and a senior research fellow at the Jerusalem Center.