|
Trending Topics
|
Source: https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/22489/iran-four-illusions
Iran: Illusions of a 60-Day-War
(Gatestone Institute) Amir Taheri - When President Donald Trump triggered the current war against Iran, what he didn't take into account was the fact that Supreme Guide Ali Khamenei, the only person who could have admitted defeat without risking his own life, was no longer there. The Islamic Republic isn't a normal regime. The Iran-Iraq War could have ended after a year but lasted eight years because Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini regarded war as a "blessing from God." He accepted ending it only when he felt that his regime's survival was at stake. Iran has suffered the biggest damage to its state structures, industry, and economy in its multi-millennial history. However, assured by Trump that he isn't after regime change, those fighting over power in Tehran feel no need to surrender in order to survive. The blockade of Iranian ports is meant to force the regime to sign up to what the U.S. wants. After four decades of having its assets frozen, Iran is used to exporting oil without immediately getting the revenue. Most of the cash Iran has received for oil exports in recent decades came from brown and black markets and money laundering through Turkish, Austrian, and Italian banks and financial facilities in other countries. The Islamic Republic needs a minimum of $60 billion a year in hard currency to pay its core supporters inside and proxies abroad. Part of that is supplied through several channels in exchange for Iranian industrial, agricultural and electricity exports. Iran also earns currency through electricity exports to Armenia and farm products to Russia. The blockade isn't going to plunge Iran into famine. Iranian food imports account for 11% of domestic consumption. Iran has enough emergency reserves of food for at least six months without causing bread riots. A reduction in food imports could be compensated for by reducing exports to Russia. Moreover, other trade routes remain available to Iran, including the transit channel that Iran has been using through Turkey for decades. The Khomeinist regime is in a post-traumatic phase and shouldn't be expected to act rationally in the midst of a bitter power struggle. The leftover regime in Tehran is trying to coax Trump into a maze of pseudo-negotiations starting with confidence-building steps, proceeding with interim discrete accords, and moving to modalities of implementation, as was done with seven previous U.S. presidents. The writer was executive editor-in-chief of the daily Kayhan in Iran from 1972 to 1979.