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Source: https://www.inss.org.il/publication/lions-roar-conclusions/
After Two Months of War, Iran Is Damaged but Not Defeated
(Institute for National Security Studies-Tel Aviv University) Dr. Raz Zimmt - More than two months after the outbreak of the Iran war, Iran has been damaged, but not defeated. Moreover, its ability to survive a combined American-Israeli offensive may even bolster its perception of victory. At this stage, there is no evidence to suggest that the Iranian regime is nearing collapse. Now under more hardline leadership, the regime has managed to maintain its command-and-control capabilities. There are no discernible cracks or fissures within the political elite, particularly in the apparatuses of repression and enforcement, led by the IRGC, the Basij, and law enforcement forces. Although toppling the regime was not presented as one of the war's objectives, the conditions that would enable the Iranian people to bring about the desired change have yet to mature. The regime still possesses effective instruments of repression and loyal security apparatuses, while its opponents still lack the capacity to translate widespread public discontent and mistrust of the regime into an organized and viable political alternative. Despite the damage inflicted on its nuclear capabilities, Iran retains residual capabilities that could serve its efforts to rehabilitate the program and even to achieve a nuclear weapons breakout. Iran could, within a relatively short period, achieve the capability to detonate a simple device and conduct an underground test, thereby signaling that it has crossed the nuclear threshold. Enrichment to the 90% level does not necessarily require numerous cascades and could be achieved within a few weeks, particularly if Iran were to implement an accelerated emergency program and if a covert facility or several small, dispersed sites across the country have already been prepared in advance. Iranian motivation to advance toward nuclear weapons is likely to intensify in light of Tehran's ongoing failure to deter its enemies from attacking through conventional means or via its regional proxies. Iran has intensified its efforts to reconstitute and upgrade its missile array as part of enhanced preparations for the potential resumption of hostilities. In its view, the war demonstrated that the missile array constitutes a primary strategic asset. While a systematic effort was made to target not only launching capabilities but also production chains and the Iranian defense industries, significant missile and launcher capabilities remained in Iran's possession at the war's end. The survivability of launchers and missiles was achieved by pre-storing them in vast storage tunnels constructed over the years. Additionally, the Iranians developed methods for clearing blockages at tunnel exits. The writer is director of the Iran and the Shiite Axis Program at the INSS.