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Source: https://jcfa.org/on-the-way-to-an-agreement-irans-dilemma-and-the-real-deadline-facing-trump/
On the Way to an Agreement with Iran?
(Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs) Oded Ailam - The regime in Tehran now finds itself at a crossroads. Refusing to compromise could trigger a harsh American response, possibly even in the form of a broad surgical attack on energy infrastructure while maintaining the naval blockade. In such a scenario, damage to power stations, oil fields, and desalination facilities could rapidly destabilize Iran's economy. Deep skepticism surrounds the option of a possible nuclear agreement. The concern is that Iran would continue advancing its nuclear program behind the scenes while exploiting sanctions relief, in order to achieve a form of nuclear immunity similar to that of Pakistan or North Korea, a reality in which possession of nuclear weapons itself deters any external attack. The complexity is compounded by the nature of the Iranian leadership in which the Revolutionary Guards play a central role. These actors often operate from a deeply ideological worldview inspired by the Battle of Karbala in the 7th century, a symbol of total sacrifice even in the face of impossible odds. In such a reality, death is not necessarily viewed as failure, but as a virtue. This mindset complicates negotiations conducted in Western terms of cost versus benefit. While the West tends to approach such matters through cold calculation, parts of the leadership in Tehran see them as a bargaining tool grounded also in a willingness for extreme sacrifice. Still, if Iran succeeds in reaching an agreement that leads to the lifting of sanctions, even partially, it could secure a major strategic achievement. The injection of billions of dollars into the domestic economy would provide the regime with vital breathing room, stabilize the internal system, and enable a gradual return to its long-term objectives. The writer, former head of the Counterterrorism Division in the Mossad, is a researcher at the Jerusalem Center.