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Shifting from Diplomatic Urgency to Strategic Patience on Iran
(Washington Institute for Near East Policy) Zohar Palti - The Islamic Republic appears convinced that time and escalation management are in its favor, while the Trump administration continues searching for mechanisms that could ease the global crisis without drawing the U.S. back into large-scale military operations. Reflecting accumulated lessons drawn from previous interactions with multiple U.S. administrations, Iranian policymakers are convinced that prolonged diplomacy and strategic patience - if not outright entrenchment in their positions - could gradually increase American flexibility over time. Tehran concluded that America can exert severe pressure, but the regime can survive it. Within Iran's longstanding doctrine of "controlled endurance," negotiations are not primarily pathways to compromise, but mechanisms for managing pressure, extending timelines, and testing the political patience of adversaries. Today, amid the growing influence of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Tehran appears even more confident that uncompromising positions can generate long-term strategic gains. As long as the regime believes American urgency will ultimately produce American concessions, there is little incentive for meaningful Iranian flexibility. The most appropriate response to this decades-long Iranian strategy is strategic patience. No superpower should cast itself as seeking an agreement at any cost. A better, more realistic option may be to deemphasize the push for rapid resolution and instead pursue a strategy of long-term, controlled pressure on several fronts simultaneously. Sustained maritime pressure including continued blockade measures against Iranian ports and vessels would directly undermine Tehran's ability to generate revenue, particularly from oil exports. Since Iran has spent years constructing alternative commercial corridors and sanctions-evasion mechanisms, broader economic pressure should include tighter enforcement against trade and financial networks connected to Iran's neighbors. The objective is to raise the cost for the wide spectrum of banks, shipping companies, energy intermediaries, logistical firms, and insurance companies that help Iran evade sanctions. Washington's primary advantage in this confrontation is not just military superiority - it also lies in America's structural economic power, global financial influence, alliance architecture, and capacity to sustain pressure over time without exhausting itself. Employing them in tandem presents a credible path to strategic success without requiring immediate military escalation. The writer, a fellow with The Washington Institute, previously served as head of the Mossad Intelligence Directorate and head of the Policy and Political-Military Bureau at Israel's Ministry of Defense.