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Source: https://www.ynetnews.com/opinions-analysis/article/bjtajyjefx
Israel Fears U.S.-Iran Deal May End the War without Ending the Threat
(Ynet News) Ron Ben-Yishai - The flood of reports and leaks in recent days surrounding the U.S.-Iran negotiations has been filled with contradictions, disinformation, political interests and very few hard facts. More than anything, it reflects how many hands are stirring the pot. According to reports in the United States and the region, Washington and Tehran are moving toward an initial understanding through Pakistani and Qatari mediation. This is not yet a comprehensive agreement that would end the confrontation in all its dimensions. It is a document of principles, a memorandum of understanding, meant to serve as the basis for a more detailed round of negotiations expected to last 30 to 60 days. One source familiar with the Iranian arena put the Israeli fear bluntly: once the United States enters a prolonged negotiating process with Iran, Tehran gains time, leverage and room to maneuver. Israeli officials fear that if the issue is pushed down the road, a future U.S. administration, or a less pro-Israel political climate in Congress and among American voters, could leave Israel with far less freedom to act. In that scenario, Israel could face heavy diplomatic pressure, restrictions on weapons and spare parts, and a clear American warning not to act independently against a renewed Iranian threat. Diplomats may try to find a vague formula that Iran can accept without giving it everything it wants. That kind of ambiguity is precisely what worries Israel and Gulf states: even if Iran does not receive formal control over Hormuz, it may retain the practical ability to threaten, disrupt or block the strait whenever it chooses. The sequencing of the emerging memorandum is troubling to Israel. If the war ends first and the uranium issue is deferred to a later round, Iran keeps its most important bargaining chip while gaining relief from military pressure. Another major Israeli concern is what does not appear to be central to the current framework: Iran's ballistic missile and drone programs. The emerging memorandum, as described in foreign reports, focuses on ending the war, resolving the Hormuz crisis and opening a window for broader negotiations. But Israel's threat perception is not limited to uranium enrichment. Iran's missile and drone arsenal is a direct strategic threat to Israel, to Gulf states and to American forces in the region. American officials may argue that those issues can be handled later. From Israel's perspective, the danger is not that diplomacy exists. The danger is diplomacy that stops the fighting without resolving the threat. That is why Jerusalem is watching the emerging memorandum with deep concern. Israeli officials fear it will not guarantee the dismantling of Iran's nuclear project, will not limit the missile and drone programs, and will not stop the activity of Iran's proxies, especially Hezbollah and the Houthis.