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Trump's Iran Exit Ramp Is a Long Shot. He Doesn't Have a Better Option.
(Washington Post) David Ignatius - President Donald Trump appears to be nearing an escape ramp from the Iran war, but it's one that represents a risky bet that Tehran's divided leadership will opt for postwar modernization rather than continuing conflict with the United States and Israel. Trump's baseline is that Iranian leaders 'must understand … that they cannot develop or procure a Nuclear Weapon or Bomb,' as he put it in a Truth Social post Sunday. But the devil is in the details. Iran hasn't publicly agreed to give up its 'right to enrich,' and after this war, its desire for a nuclear deterrent will probably be as strong as ever. The Trump team believes that global energy prices will decline quickly once the Strait of Hormuz reopens. One official said the ships now stranded in the Persian Gulf are carrying 150 million barrels of oil; as that oil heads to market, prices will ease, the official predicted. The Trump team has been playing what amounts to a game of thrones with the fragmented elements of Iran's new leadership. They've reached out to a range of Iranian officials, including some senior members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, using contacts developed by key intermediaries. The Trump team's pitch has focused on the economic opportunities that would follow a settlement. This vision of a modern, prosperous country would delight most Iranians. But it's anathema to many hard-liners, who since 1979 have feared that modernization will undermine the revolution. The mullahs worry about 'cultural contamination' from the West that will weaken Islamic values. As one source involved in war planning put it, 'We have the capability to bomb anything. But what can we do that will change Iranian decision-making?' The bet that triumphal IRGC cadres and their regime allies will join in building a modern state is a long shot. But Trump doesn't appear to have any better options available.