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Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/26/opinion/iran-deal-truce-trump.html
A Deal or No Deal with Iran
(New York Times) Bret Stephens - A deal with Iran that allows the regime to emerge from the war as the perceived victor instantly magnifies our overall geopolitical risks. China will take note of the fact that the president lost his appetite for war after just 39 days and 13 military fatalities. U.S. allies in the region will take similar note. Why would the Saudis or Pakistanis want to incur the domestic risks of recognizing Israel if Israel and the U.S. look like the weak horses against Iran? Worse: Iran's new leaders will draw the lesson that closing the Strait of Hormuz is a card they can play at will, knowing they have a greater tolerance than their adversaries for the pain it might impose. They will use it to extract an ever-increasing list of economic and strategic demands. The closer we get to the midterms, the more political incentive Trump has to avoid conflict. The Iranians know this, which is why they'll play for time with a carefully balanced set of tantalizing promises and extraneous demands, whether about Hizbullah or the financial payoffs they'll insist upon in exchange for easily reversible concessions. The Iranian regime hangs by slender threads: a worthless currency, a mostly bankrupt state, a badly wounded military, all-but-undefended airspace, and a leadership whose final claim to legitimacy is that it has stood up to the Great and Little Satans and, so far, survived.