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Source: https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2026/05/26/evaluating-the-damage-to-irans-ballistic-missile-arsenal/
Evaluating the Damage to Iran's Ballistic Missile Arsenal
(Foundation for Defense of Democracies) Mark Dubowitz and Behnam Ben Taleblu - Ballistic missiles form the backbone of Iran's deterrence strategy and have increasingly been used in military operations. Between 2024 and 2026, Iran launched 2,200-2,400 missiles in four waves of external military operations. Nearly 40 days of sustained U.S.-Israeli airstrikes severely degraded Iran's ballistic missile capability but did not eliminate it. According to the IDF, Iran possessed 2,500 missiles capable of reaching Israel at the start of the war. By April 5, shortly before the ceasefire, an Israeli Air Force official estimated that Tehran had just over 1,000 such missiles remaining. The most consequential damage may not be the missiles already destroyed, but Iran's sharply degraded ability to replace them. Before the war in June 2025, Israel estimated that Iran could expand its arsenal to 8,000-10,000 ballistic missiles within two to three years. This would constitute a force large enough to overwhelm missile defenses in Israel and the region through sheer saturation. During the war, key production infrastructure such as solid-propellant fuel and motor fabrication sites were systematically targeted at sites like Khojir, Shahroud, Hakimiyeh, and Parchin. These facilities were the beating heart of Iran's ballistic missile industry. What is beyond dispute is that Iran's missile program has suffered its most severe setback in decades. Tehran now possesses a diminished arsenal after losing major portions of its launch infrastructure, production facilities, and senior military leadership. The war has taught Iran's hardened military leaders a brutal reality: without access to critical industrial inputs, every missile fired is one that may not be replaced anytime soon. Mark Dubowitz is CEO of FDD, where Behnam Ben Taleblu is the senior director of the Iran Program.