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Source: https://www.ynetnews.com/opinions-analysis/article/sjwdhvtwfg
Trump Ended the War on His Terms, Leaving Israel with the Consequences
(Ynet News) Col. (res.) Eldad Shavit - The understandings reached between the U.S. and Iran are not a historic agreement and certainly not a new nuclear deal. They are mainly an American attempt to stop a war that Trump no longer wanted. The president needed an exit. Now he is presenting it as a victory. But most of the difficult issues have not been resolved. The nuclear program has not been dismantled. The fate of the enriched uranium remains disputed. Oversight is unclear. The 60-day negotiation window that is now supposed to open does not guarantee a breakthrough. It is more likely to become a mechanism for delay and buying time. Trump, having already declared success, will find it difficult to quickly return to a full-scale war. The more likely scenario is prolonged management of indecision. Israel emerges from this campaign stronger militarily, but more constrained diplomatically. It proved its ability to strike Iran and operate alongside the U.S., but it also learned that Washington decides when to stop, what counts as victory, and how much Israel will be able to keep operating the day after. Israel sought a decision. Trump sought a victory image. That gap erupted around the Israeli strike in Dahieh. From Israel's perspective, it was part of the ongoing campaign against Hizbullah. From Trump's perspective, it was almost an act of sabotage against his diplomatic move. Regional states will not rush to conclude that Iran is out of the game. They saw that the U.S. knows how to apply tremendous military force, but is not built, politically or economically, to conduct a prolonged war until full victory over Iran. Many of them will return to maintaining channels with Tehran, understanding that, even after a severe blow, Iran remains a player that cannot be ignored. Israel's main concern now is freedom of action. Any Israeli operation against Iranian facilities, senior officials or strategic assets could be seen in Washington as an attempt to torpedo the agreement Trump is presenting as a personal achievement. In Lebanon, Israel may retain greater room to maneuver. But any significant strike in Dahieh or against Hizbullah will be examined through one question: Does it endanger the understandings with Iran? The writer, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies, previously served in senior roles in Israeli Defense Intelligence and the Mossad.