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Tehran's Strategy Worked
(Algemeiner) Sagiv Steinberg - On Sunday, President Donald Trump announced a framework agreement with Iran to end the 15-week conflict. The agreement represents a dramatic shift in the Middle East's strategic balance. Iran stood up to the world's strongest power and emerged with an agreement enhancing its regional influence across the Persian Gulf. Gulf states, clear American allies, now understand that Iranian bullying ultimately pays off. They are paying the price in cash through extortion, threats, and only partial American protection. They have also internalized another lesson: there is only one country capable of effectively confronting Iran - Israel. Beijing has drawn a clear lesson from the Iran episode: the U.S. does not necessarily have to be defeated on the battlefield. It can be pressured, and in some cases strategically outmaneuvered, through economic leverage. Europeans and Japanese are rushing to align with the agreement. Europe continues to believe that money and economic concessions will protect it from Iranian terror. The U.S. is working to dismantle Hizbullah in Lebanon, while at the same time the agreement grants it a significant lifeline through Iranian rehabilitation. The deal projects American weakness that encourages Iran's proxies to recover and strengthen. For Israel, the Shiite axis has been weakened but not defeated. Tehran has historically viewed ceasefires as opportunities to rearm, reorganize, and prepare for the next confrontation. If it uses the coming months to rebuild its missile arsenal, advance its nuclear ambitions, or strengthen its proxy network, Israel will act again - alone if necessary. This is another pause in a long and exhausting war. Iranian intentions remain unchanged and the challenge posed by Iran remains unfinished. The writer is CEO and director of communications at the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs.