|
Trending Topics
|
Source: https://www.ynetnews.com/opinions-analysis/article/bjvcsinzmx
What Israel Achieved in Iran, and What Threats Remain
(Ynet News) Ron Ben-Yishai - Setting back Iran's nuclear and missile programs by years was of strategic significance. But the memorandum of understanding that Trump was maneuvered into by the Iranians gave the ayatollahs a psychological victory that will strengthen their ability to survive and suppress their people, as well as an economic lifeline that will grow and enable them to rebuild capabilities and repair the destruction. Contrary to claims by opponents of the war in the U.S., Netanyahu did not drag the Americans into it. But in the U.S. media, the perception took hold that Israel had enticed Trump into a war that did not serve American interests and amounted to a glaring waste of resources. Israel launched its June 2025 attack on Iran because the Iranians had taken steps that could have given them, within a short time, the knowledge and physical capability to produce an initial nuclear explosive device. Such a capability, combined with the large quantity of uranium that had already been enriched to 60% - almost weapons-grade - created a real atomic weapons threat within months. Trump stopped Israel after 12 days, but only after it had achieved nearly 80% of its military objectives. Trump completed the mission with American bombers, putting the Fordow enrichment facility - which Israel could not neutralize on its own - out of action for a long time. Based on what is known, the nuclear program was set back by 3-5 years. Today, Iran cannot break out to a nuclear weapon, even if it has immediate secret access to some of the material and even if a hidden enrichment facility exists. Israel destroyed many launchers and missiles, as well as production facilities for missiles and the materials used to manufacture fuels and explosives. But the ballistic missile threat remains. The intelligence community had information by early 2026 showing that Iran had a plan to destroy Israel with conventional means. At its center was producing thousands of ballistic missiles and launching dozens or hundreds in each barrage, overwhelming the air defense systems of Israel and the U.S. together. On the eve of the operation in Feb. 2026, Iran had 2,500 long-range ballistic missiles and several hundred launchers, most of them hidden in tunnels and missile cities beneath rock layers more than 100 meters thick. Because Israel does not have bombs capable of directly penetrating to such depths, and the Americans had only a very limited number of bombs of the type used at Fordow, it was decided to seal the entrances to the tunnels and missile cities so the launchers could not emerge. But the Iranians prepared huge bulldozers in advance, cleared the rocks and dirt blocking the entrances, and resumed launches within days. More than 50% of Iran's launchers and missiles were put out of action, but it still has more than 1,000 missiles of all types and ranges. The main strategic achievement of the IDF and the U.S. military was the systematic and extensive destruction of defense industry plants and Iran's massive research and development infrastructure. This means Iran's ability to reproduce large quantities of missiles that would allow it to overwhelm Israel's defense systems has been neutralized for a long time, probably 2-3 years, even if the U.S. releases large financial resources to Iran.